【论文精要】张丹丹+刘雅玄+赵一泠：新冠疫情加剧职场中的“女性衰退”现象——来自中国的证据

题记：本文摘编自同题论文Working mothers' dilemma during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from China，该论文2024年2月刊发于China Economic Review。第一作者张丹丹北大博雅青年学者、国发院副院长、经济学教授，教育部长江青年学者，刘雅玄为北大硕士生，赵一泠为北大经济学院助理教授。

女性在劳动力市场上的地位与男性存在显著差异是一个长期存在的问题，在当今低生育率情况下更不容小觑。

2023年诺贝尔经济学奖得主Claudia Goldin指出，劳动力市场上的性别平等，在很大程度上取决于家庭内部的分工与平等。新冠疫情作为一场突如其来的外部冲击，不仅引发了全球公共健康问题，还造成全球性经济衰退。为应对外来生存和经济压力，两性在家庭中的地位又会发生哪些变化？

疫情因素为我们观察两性在家庭和职场中的地位变化提供了独特视角。

在发达国家，新冠疫情引发的经济衰退对男性和女性产生了截然不同的影响，出现了所谓的“女性衰退”（She-cession）现象。

中国作为女性劳动力参与率较高的国家，在疫情期间实施了严格的防控措施。因此，研究中国劳动力市场在疫情期间的性别差异具有重要意义。为此，2020年疫情防控的不同时期（3月、6月和11月），我们针对中国325个城市5866名从业者进行了三轮追踪调查。我们的研究基于这些调查数据，系统分析了女性劳动力相比男性在疫情期间所承担的额外经济和心理成本。

三轮调查涵盖了受访者疫情前、疫情中和疫情后的工作状态和收入信息，以便分析男女从业者在各阶段的就业和收入差异。此外，对于有配偶的受访者，6月和11月的调查中，我们还专门收集了配偶的工作状态和收入变动信息，以及家庭分工与子女相关的问题，从而构建家庭层面的数据集，分析家庭内部夫妻双方在劳动力市场中呈现的结果差异。

首先，我们探讨了新冠疫情对男性和女性从业者在劳动力市场表现方面所受影响的差异。结果显示，疫情后失业、工作时长和工资的性别差距进一步拉大。

截至2020年11月，中国女性劳动力的失业率比男性高出5.1%；女性平均每天工作时长比男性少1.4小时，这一差距较疫情前的0.6小时/天扩大了133%；女性平均工资比男性低2234元/月，较疫情前的1725元/月扩大了近30%。在控制了职业和行业因素后，这些结论依然成立，也说明导致“女性衰退”的原因可能更多地与两个方面的变化有关，即个体的劳动参与意愿变化，或者就业市场的性别偏好变化。

其次，婚姻和子女状况进一步加剧了劳动力市场的性别差距。有学龄前子女的职场妈妈在劳动力市场中处于最为不利的地位。与有学龄前子女的职场爸爸相比，她们失业的可能性高出181%，工作时间减少18.6%，劳动收入（截至2020年底）低36.8%。这表明，疫情期间的封控措施、学校停课和经济停滞，加剧了“男主外，女主内”的传统家庭分工模式，使女性在复工和家庭之间面临更大挑战，因为要承担更多家庭负担。做出牺牲的职场妈妈，心理健康状况也比较糟糕，这反映出疫情期间家庭和工作的双重压力对女性有巨大影响。

再次，为了进一步揭示男女在劳动力市场上的差异与家庭分工变化有直接关系，我们使用配偶数据集，对已婚夫妻在疫情期间的分工差异进一步做分析。结果显示，平均而言，妻子复工的概率低于丈夫；若妻子的收入高于丈夫，她更有可能在封锁解除后重返工作岗位，并工作更长时间。不过，如果家庭中有学龄子女，收入高于丈夫的妻子在优先复工和工作时长方面的优势将不复存在。

综上所述，本研究发现新冠疫情加剧了中国劳动力市场上的性别收入差距，这主要源于应急状态下家庭内部分工的变化。在特殊时期，职场妈妈承担了家庭更多的责任、更大的就业冲击，也经历了更严重的心理创伤。

不仅如此，疫情结束后劳动力市场的性别差距仍呈扩大趋势，职场妈妈的困境难以在短期内得到根本改善。

本研究呼吁，在应急情况下要特别关注家庭内部的弱势劳动群体，尤其是面临照顾子女和工作两难选择的女性。由于她们的身心健康状况对于朝夕相处的下一代影响巨大，家庭其他成员、就业单位和社会都需要为她们提供更多、更有力的支持，以减轻她们的负担并促进性别平等。

Gender disparity in the labor market should not be underestimated. Claudia Goldin, who won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics, believes that gender equality in the labor market largely depends on the division of labor and equality within families. The COVID-19 pandemic, as an unexpected external shock, has led to public health crises around the world, causing a global economic recession. It has also provided an opportunity for us to observe changes in the status of men and women in families when responding to external survival and economic pressures.

Evidence from developed countries shows that the global economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has had distinctly different impacts on men and women, leading to a "She-cession." China implemented the strictest pandemic prevention and control measures during the pandemic. With high female labor force participation rates, COVID-19’s impact on China's labor market and the gender differences it brought are more noteworthy.

This article employs data from three waves of individual tracking surveys conducted in March, June, and November 2020, covering 5,866 workers in 325 cities across China. We systematically analyzed the additional economic and psychological costs of female labor compared to male labor during the pandemic. Our survey collected information on respondents' work status and income before, during, and after the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, which can be used to analyze gender differences at different points. In addition to detailed individual information, we extended the survey questions to spouses of sampled respondents (if any) in the two follow-up surveys. This allowed us to construct a household-level dataset of married couples to analyze within-household differences in labor market outcomes between couples.

The first question we address is the gender difference in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on labor market outcomes. Our results show a widening gender gap in unemployment, hours worked, and monthly salary throughout 2020. As of November 2020, compared to pre-pandemic, the unemployment rate of female employees was 5.1 percentage points higher than that of male employees; women’s average working hours were 1.4 hours per day shorter than men, a 133% increase from the 0.6 hours/day difference before the pandemic; and women's wages were 2,234 RMB/month lower than men's on average, an increase of nearly 30% from the 1,725 yuan/month difference before the pandemic. These conclusions remain valid even after controlling for occupation and industry fixed effects, ruling out the possibility that the results are mainly caused by the pandemic having a more significant impact on the industries and occupations where women are employed. This suggests that the "She-cession" in China is more likely due to changes in individuals' willingness to supply the labor force or employers’ gender preferences.

Marriage and children further exacerbate the gender gaps in the labor market. Working mothers with a child aged 0–6 experienced the most adverse labor market outcomes. Specifically, working mothers with children under 7 were 43.8% more likely to be unemployed than women without children under 7. Moreover, compared with working fathers with children under 7, working mothers with children under 7 bore an 181% higher unemployment risk, spent 18.6% less time on work, and earned 36.8% less per month in November 2020. During the pandemic, lockdowns, school closures, and economic standstill intensified the traditional family division of labor in families, where “men work outside, and women take care of the home,” leading to women bearing a more significant burden of family responsibilities. Working mothers faced a dilemma between work resumption and family responsibilities, which made them shoulder more household burdens. Working mothers who made sacrifices seem to be less happy. We found that the mental health of working mothers was significantly worse than other groups, which seems to indicate the enormous impact of the dual pressures of family and work during the unique circumstances of the pandemic on women.

To further illustrate that the gender disparity in the labor market primarily reflects changes in the division of labor within families, we utilized the couple dataset focusing on gender differences in labor division within married couples during the pandemic. Using the information on the respondents’ and their spouses’ pre-pandemic salaries, we assessed how relative earning ability factored into differentiated work resumption decisions for a husband and wife. On average, the wife was less likely to return to work than her husband. That gap went down if the wife earned more than her husband but hardly changed if the wife earned more than her husband and the household had a child 0-6.

Our results underscore that the COVID-19 shock exacerbated the gendered income gap. This change mainly stems from the labor division within families under emergency conditions. During this particular period, working mothers took on more family responsibilities and faced more significant employment impacts, experiencing more severe mental health. Moreover, we found that the gender gap in the labor market tends to widen even after the pandemic ends. The situation for working mothers is unlikely to improve fundamentally in the short term.

This study calls for attention to vulnerable groups at the household level during emergencies. Women face the dilemma of childcare and working, and their mental health has a significant impact on the next generation with whom they spend day and night. Therefore, families, employers, and society need to support women more robustly.

作者简介：

张丹丹 (Dandan Zhang)：北大博雅青年学者、国发院副院长、经济学教授，教育部长江青年学者，中国劳动经济学会常务理事。研究领域为劳动经济学、应用计量经济学和实验经济学，特别关注转型期弱势群体的福利问题及社会变革、制度文化冲击对人行为的影响。

刘雅玄 (Yaxuan Liu)：北大硕士学生。研究兴趣包括劳动经济学、行为经济学、公司金融、宏观金融等。

赵一泠 (Yiling Zhao)（通讯作者）：北京大学经济学院助理教授，研究领域为经济史和劳动经济学。其研究主要关注历史事件对人力资本积累和偏好的影响。

原文信息：

Zhang, Dandan, Yaxuan Liu, and Yiling Zhao. "Working mothers' dilemma during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from China." China Economic Review (2024): 102132.

原文链接：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X2400021X/pdfft?md5=873c2e44f64858f6815788fa411328b3&pid=1-s2.0-S1043951X2400021X-main.pdf